ARA reveals Christmas spend forecast

christmas, season, tag, price, salesAustralian shoppers will spend $46.7 billion in retail stores over Christmas trading, according to The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan Research.

ARA executive director, Russell Zimmerman, said Australian consumers are tipped to spend 3.6 per cent more during the official trading period from November 15 to December 24, than in 2014. The spending forecast comes on the back of increased retail spending in September 2015.

“While the ARA would obviously be thrilled to see higher levels of growth, given the current climate and underlying factors, we’re confident that retailers will see a robust Christmas trade that builds on the amount spent across the country last year,” said Zimmerman.

The ARA has partnered with research partner, Roy Morgan Research, to put together the projections, which factor in aspects such as unemployment and consumer sentiment. In 2014, the ARA and Roy Morgan correctly predicted Christmas spending would reach $45 billion, representing growth of 4.3 per cent, with actual sales hitting $45.2 billion for the period.

The ARA has provided pre-Christmas spending forecasts for over 20 years. “The ARA and Roy Morgan have had almost pinpoint accuracy in our forecast for the last few years, and we’re pleased to see that consumers will continue to hit the shops in their droves in 2015,” said Zimmerman.

“Victorian retailers particularly will be set for a rush in sales over the next six weeks, with forecast growth of 4.6 per cent for the state, while Queensland shoppers will also be considerably active in stores to the tune of 4.2 per cent growth,” said Zimmerman.

Earlier this week the National Retail Association (NRA) predicted consumers across the nation will spend $44.5 billion in the pre-Christmas period.

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  1. William S Robson posted on November 11, 2015

    Where does Mr Zimmerman and Roy Morgan Research get their figures for Christmas 2014. The only published figures that I am aware of is the ABS and they indicate that Christmas Retail Trade for 2014 at best would have been 42.728 billion but if you discount Boxing Day from December 2014 they would have been $38,473 billion. The Christmas sales were nowhere near $45 billion. The ARA do this every year, I wish they would check their projections with the actual Retail Trade 8501 figures published by the ABS. Further the ARA had looked at the MAT for current Retail Trade they would have seen the sector is increasing at 4.4% year on year which would see Christmas 2015 be close to $44.654 billion reply

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