Australian dollar dips slightly

ID:44011321
ID:44011321

The Australian dollar has dipped slightly against its US counterpart, buying 69.18 US cents from 69.19 US cents on Wednesday.

Yesterday, the local currency was stuck on the sidelines while government bonds took the starring role as mounting concerns about global growth drove yields to all-time lows.

The Aussie was holding tight at 69.24 US cents on Wednesday having spent three sessions in a snug 69.13-69.41 US cents range.

The bull run for bonds was timely for Australia’s government as it sold $3 billion in a new 2031 line that offered a record-low coupon of just 1.5 per cent – equal to the overnight cash rate.

The sale drew a hefty $10.7 billion in bids to yield 1.6 per cent – 65 basis points less than the equivalent US note.

Yields on three-year paper hit a historic low of 1.082 per cent, while futures firmed to 98.915.

Bonds everywhere have been boosted by a run of soft global economic data and worries the Chinese-US trade dispute could last for years and spread to other countries.

The local market gained added impetus from the prospect of cuts in official rates as economic growth and inflation disappointed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is considered almost certain to ease by a quarter point to 1.25 per cent at a policy meeting on Tuesday.

Futures have fully priced in a further move down to one per cent by September at the latest, and imply a 64 per cent chance of reaching 0.75 per cent by February next year.

GDP data for the March quarter due out next week is expected to justify that dovish outlook with annual economic growth expected to slow to just 1.8 per cent or less, levels last recorded during the global financial crisis.

The only glint of light has been signs of a pick up in home loan demand and house prices since the coalition won re-election on May 18.

“We cannot ignore the growing body of anecdotes of a post-election bounce activity such as housing foot traffic/auction clearance rates and weekly consumer confidence surging to above average levels,” said Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities.

“We favour a short pause at 1.25 per cent for the RBA to not only assess the impact of a June cut, but determine exactly what fiscal stimulus is coming down the pipe and what impact this could have on the economic outlook.”

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