Dollar loses ground

dollar, money, notes, australianThe Australian dollar is almost level with its previous close as gains from weak US economic data are offset by local interest rate cut expectations.

At 0700 AEST on Tuesday, the local unit was trading at 75.94 US cents, slightly up from 75.93 cents on Thursday, before the Easter long weekend.

Since 1700 AEST on Thursday, the Australian dollar has traded between 75.79 US cents and 76.68 cents.

Economic data out at the end of last week showed that only 126,000 jobs were added to the US economy in March, ending a streak of 12 consecutive months of job gains above 200,000.

Westpac, senior market strategist, Imre Speizer said the figure raised questions about whether the US Federal Reserve will be in a position to raise its interest rate later this year – and that gave the Aussie dollar a boost.

“US payrolls data was a major disappointment on Friday night,” he said.

“Markets remain cautious on the timing of the first Fed rate hike while inflation expectations have risen.”

The Australian dollar started to lose ground again as markets resumed trading on Tuesday, as it looks certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its cash rate either at its board meeting on Tuesday, or in May.

“Falling Australian interest rates and commodity prices, and a strong US dollar, should continue to weigh on the Australian dollar during the next few months,” Speizer said.

The Australian dollar reached a post float record low against the New Zealand dollar of 100.21 NZ cents.

Speizer said the Australian dollar had been falling against the kiwi over the past two months because while the RBA is looking to cut its rate, the NZ central bank is keeping its rate unchanged.

“The cross rate should oscillate widely for much of this year, during which time touching parity is possible, and then rise into 2016,” he said.

APP

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